There is no doubt that the climate is changing. Usually moderate areas are becoming arid and other places are getting record rain. Countries are not prepared for this. Farmers must change to other crops to stay survive. | __ .. .
The wheat yield in Australia increased 300 percent to 1990. Since that time output has been steady. Rain seems to be sufficient near the coast, but inland there is not much wet. Government must do more to help those adapting. | __ .. || .. |
Wheat is a staple for everyone. If the shortfall continues the price will increase. Furthermore, Australia is a major world exporter of wheat. Farmers have changed practices: this has maintained production. | __.... | not.| ....__
Over the last 26 years temperatures have risen by 1.05℃. Rain has declined by 2.8mm per growing season. It is hard to believe that even with this clear evidence there are still skeptics. | __ .. | not | .. __ .... |
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CROP REMAINS EVEN
CROP REMAINS EVEN
climate change has levelled australian wheat production editions sections home arts culture business economy education environment energy fact check health medicine politics society science technology search services events job board newsletter read on play newsstand information who we are our charter our team decline in yield potential decline in yield potential decline in yield potential decline in yield potentialgrains research and development corporation grains research and development corporation grains research and development corporation changing climate stalled australian wheat yields study changing climate stalled australian wheat yields study changing climate stalled australian wheat yields study due to low grain prices yield potential has declined yield potential has declined due to low grain prices our audience partners and funders contributing institutions contact us friends of the conversation privacy policy terms and conditions corrections edition available editions close menu australia africa france global united kingdom united states job board donate become an rising temperatures and reduced rainfall rising temperatures and reduced rainfall rising temperatures and reduced rainfall world’s biggest wheat exporters world’s biggest wheat exporters author sign up as a reader sign in get newsletter get our newsletter search academic rigour journalistic flair arts culture business economy education environment energy factcheck health medicine politics society science technology follow topics cop22 australian natural hazards series gardening series marine reserves series renewable energy paris climate agreement sharks great barrier reef changing climate has stalled australian january 25 2017 6.17am aedt fields of gold australia’s wheat industry contributes more than a 5 billion to the economy each year wheat image from www.shutterstock.com changing climate has stalled australian january 25 2017 6.17am aedt zvi hochman david l gobbett and heidi horan authors zvi hochman senior principal research scientist farming systems csiro david l gobbett spatial data analyst csiro heidi horan cropping systems modeller csiro disclosure statement zvi hochman receives funding from grdc and the national australia bank he is a board director of birchip cropping group inc bcg a not-for-profit agricultural research and extension organisation led by farmers from the wimmera and mallee regions of victoria david gobbett receives funding from the grdc sugar research australia sra and wine australia through the department of agriculture and water resources rural r d for profit programme heidi horan receives funding from the grdc and national australia bank partners csiro provides funding as a founding partner of the conversation au view all partners republish this article republish our articles for free online or in print under creative commons licence email twitter 181 facebook 251 linkedin 17 print australia’s wheat yields more than trebled during the first 90 years of the 20th century but have stalled since 1990 in research published today in global change biology we show that in line with global climate change are responsible for the shortfall this is a major concern for wheat farmers the australian economy and global food security as the climate continues to change the wheat industry is typically worth more than a 5 billion per year – australia’s most valuable crop globally food production needs to increase by at least 60 by 2050 and australia is one of the there is some good news though so far despite poorer conditions for growing wheat farmers have managed to improve farming practices and at least stabilise yields the question is how long they can continue to do so worsening weather while wheat yields have been largely the same over the 26 years from 1990 to 2015 potential yields have declined by 27 since 1990 from 4.4 tonnes per hectare to 3.2 tonnes per hectare potential yields are the limit on what a wheat field can produce this is determined by weather soil type the genetic potential of the best adapted wheat varieties and sustainable best practice farmers’ actual yields are further restricted by economic considerations attitude to risk knowledge and other socio-economic factors while overall the trend has not been evenly distributed while some areas have not suffered any decline others have declined by up to 100kg per hectare each year the distribution of the annual change in wheat yield potential from 1990 to 2015 each dot represents one of the 50 weather stations used in the study david gobbett zvi hochman and heidi horan author provided we found this by investigating 50 high-quality weather stations located throughout australia’s wheat-growing areas analysis of the weather data revealed that on average the amount of rain falling on growing crops declined by 2.8mm per season or 28 over 26 years while maximum daily temperatures increased by an average of 1.05℃ to calculate the impact of these climate trends on potential wheat yields we applied a crop simulation model apsim which has been thoroughly validated against field experiments in australia to the 50 weather stations climate variability or climate change there is strong evidence globally that increasing greenhouse gases are causing rises in temperature recent studies have also attributed observed rainfall trends in our study region to anthropogenic climate change statistically the chance of observing the over 50 weather stations and 26 years through random variability is less than one in 100 billion we can also separate the individual impacts of rainfall decline temperature rise and more co₂ in the atmosphere all else being equal rising atmospheric co₂ means more plant growth first we statistically removed the rising temperature trends from the daily temperature records and re-ran the simulations this showed that lower rainfall accounted for 83 of the while temperature rise alone was responsible for 17 of the decline next we re-ran our simulations with climate records keeping co₂ at 1990 levels the co₂ enrichment effect whereby crop growth benefits from higher atmospheric co₂ levels prevented a further 4 decline relative to 1990 yields so the rising co₂ levels provided a small benefit compared to the combined impact of rainfall and temperature trends closing the yield gap why then have actual yields remained steady when by 27 here it is important to understand the concept of yield gaps the difference between potential yields and farmers’ actual yields an earlier study showed that between 1996 and 2010 australia’s wheat growers achieved 49 of their yield potential – so there was a 51 yield gap between what the fields could potentially produce and what farmers actually harvested averaged out over a number of seasons australia’s most productive farmers achieve about 80 of their yield potential globally this is considered to be the ceiling for many crops wheat farmers are closing the yield gap from harvesting 38 of potential yields in 1990 this increased to 55 by 2015 this is why despite the decrease in yield potential actual yields have been stable impressively wheat growers have adopted advances in technology and adapted them to their needs they have adopted improved varieties as well as improved practices including reduced cultivation or tillage of their land controlled traffic to reduce soil compaction integrated weed management and seasonally targeted fertiliser use this has enabled them to keep pace with an increasingly challenging climate what about the future let’s assume that the climate trend observed over the past 26 years continues at the same rate during the next 26 years and that farmers continue to close the yield gap so that all farmers reach 80 of yield potential if this happens we calculate that the national wheat yield will fall from the recent average of 1.74 tonnes per hectare to 1.55 tonnes per hectare in 2041 such a future would be challenging for wheat producers especially in more marginal areas with higher rates of while total wheat production and therefore exports under this scenario will decrease australia can continue to contribute to future global food security through its agricultural research and development agriculture climate change food security food weather farming crops wheat rainfall temperature tweet 181 share 251 get newsletter you might also like could more co₂ in the atmosphere mean faster growing crops jose cabezas afp co₂ is food for plants ’ what will higher emissions mean for crop productivity australia already has many plants that can cope with harsh conditions shutterstock tero hakala to future-proof our crops from drought look to the australian deserts before the 1980s farmers thought lack of water limited their yield new crops and sowing methods are breaking yield barriers michael middleton australia’s farming future doing more with less water coffee is one of africa major exports here ward holland reuters coffee lovers beware climate change may affect your brew sign in to comment 66 comments oldest newest comments on this article are now closed comment removed by moderator steve sallans logged in via facebook if one sets out to find climate change effecting wheat production hard enough i guess you will find it hint global change biology however http www.abc.net.au news 2017-01-12 nsw-winter-crop-set-to-break-the-record 8178532 http www.abc.net.au news 2017-01-11 grain-harvest-on-track-to-break-volume-records-in-east-australia 8174610 you can also ignore other factors like reduced planting and other unrelated price pressures for example http www.abc.net.au news rural rural-news 2017-01-13 us-farmers-plant-smallest-crop-in-108-years 8179942 read more 2 days ago report show all comments most popular on the conversation a genuinely believable cgi actor it won’t be long a new twist on fusion power could help bring limitless clean energy 2016 crowned hottest year on record australia needs to get 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